Two days after the sudden death of President Bingu, The Republic of Malawi swore in its Vice President Joyce Banda as the new and first female Head of State, an event whose place in world history as one of the greatest examples of upholding the constitution of a country has largely been understated. Even so, as with the arrival of all things new, there is an air of optimism around the country, a sense of hope that the new leader will turn out to be as much a catalyst for positive change as she claims to be.
Three years ago the first signs of her predecessor's autocratic leadership style and the self-enrichment of his coterie were a cause of suspicion among Malawians; then a streak of bad and Ill-advised decisions over the next few months turned that suspicion into anxiety; then the president's defiance of his critics turned that anxiety into levels of frustration that expressed themselves through protests across the country; then the authorities' violent crack down of the protests left twenty civilians dead, and suddenly the country's frustration turned into fear; and the severe degeneration of the economy that followed turned that fear into despair, the kind of despair that was making people lose hope that things will ever get better again. So whether or not Joyce Banda is fit for the job she has inherited, the relief that her providential ascendance to such a high office has injected into the hearts of all Malawians is a much welcome element, for this optimism is going to be key in restoring the people's confidence to participate and have a say in how they are governed.
But herein lies her dilemma, if not the danger. Joyce Banda is not just receiving promises of support from those citizens who joined her in her critique of the late president's mismanagement of the country; she is not just receiving pledges of allegiance from those who helped her survive the political wilderness and persecution to which she was relegated for over a year by her late boss and his circle of party and cabinet officials; she is not just getting calls of congratulation from the international community that had cut budgetary aid to Malawi to protest against the poor governance and disregard for human rights rampant under the late president's leadership. Joyce Banda's dilemma is that she has also received assurances of support from members of the same political parties that once vilified and demonized her in public, from members of the late president's cabinet of ministers who secretly plotted and publicly announced their intention to block her from taking the oath of office, from people and entities that have built, been a part of, and benefited from the broken and corrupt political establishment of Malawi for twenty years with no visible benefit to Malawi's poor masses, from members of the media who ran a profitable campaign of slander and defamation against her, and from entrepreneurs and businesses with whom her predecessor is suspected to have done numerous back door deals at the expense of Malawi's economic recovery. So Joyce Banda cannot ride this current wave of euphoric optimism forever. Mobs are too fickle to sustain a single unified mood for a long period of time, not to mention that the memory of the collective is often shorter than that of the individual. Soon the euphoria will give way to high and conflicting expectations that the country will demand to be met by the presidential novice, and where expectations are great and conflicting there is also the prospect of great disappointments. And this is where Her Excellency's leadership will face its greatest dilemma and test, a test of whom she will choose to disappoint.
The country is in a mess, its furniture in disarray. It needs an extreme make-over, a woman's touch if you will. But some of the people promising to help Joyce Banda govern are the very ones she needs to purge from the corridors of power, and some of the systemic infrastructures she needs to deconstruct are the very ones which enable those people to stay in power by hopping into one party while still serving a term of office under the banner of another party without needing to resign from office in order to protect its integrity from their conflict of interests. So these people won't go out without a fight. They have great power, numbers, and money, all of which will be wielded against her and all of which she will have to sacrifice in order to get the job done and quickly, for two years is not a long time in government.
So if Joyce Banda is to succeed at cleaning up the government, she is going to have to act quickly after the days of national mourning for President Bingu have come and gone. She is going to have to act more like a doctor conducting emergency surgery than one prescribing a long-term dose of medication. But if she takes the tough measures this country needs to recover, the political establishment will resist it, and the country will not be able to stomach the ensuing political war for long, for the electorate has a weak stomach. Then she will be accused of having the same autocratic leadership style as her predecessor, and the accusation will be partly true. This is her first choice. The alternative will be to make the enemies of Malawi's progress her political friends, which won't secure the full measure of freedom, justice and prosperity that Malawi is capable of, but will secure her political longevity. In the end, her dilemma may be a simple choice between cleaning up the country at the cost of the next election on the one hand, and securing the next election at the cost of truly cleaning up the country on the other. But just because the choice is simple, does not mean it will be easy.
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